Hunger Pangs

The poll group Social Weather Stations (SWS) reported that a new national hunger record was set early October 2007, when 21.5 percent of Philippine households had suffered from hunger, without having anything to eat, at least once in the three months previous to the latest SWS survey of Sept. 2-5, 2007. This new percentage consists of 17.4 percent who said they experienced it only once or a few times, termed Moderate Hunger, and 4.1 percent who said they experienced it often or always, termed Severe Hunger. The survey respondent is the household head, acting as spokesperson for the family.

As expected, the government went into denial mode. Yet, Secretary Duque, who supervises the National Nutrition Council and assigned by the President to monitor the hunger situation, was unaware that the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) did a survey in mid-2006, and obtained a national hunger rate of 19 percent validating the SWS account of hunger, reported this to the secretary of agriculture January 2007, but never circulated to the Cabinet.

Hunger means lack of adequate nutrition, the foundation of good health and wellbeing. Poverty is the root cause of hunger. How can public policy be reformed to alleviate poverty? An obvious first step is to ensure the availability of cheaper rice, our staple food.

To do this requires a politically painful decision, the abolition of the National Food Authority (NFA) with its monopoly of the on international trade in rice and corn The NFA gets in the way of the free market.

Who are required to secure a license from NFA? All persons that engage in the rice and/or corn business whether commercial or NFA rice/corn.

What activities in the rice/corn industry are required to have a license from NFA? All businessmen engaged in the following activities are required to have a license: retailing, wholesaling, milling, warehousing, corn shelling, processing/manufacturing, threshing, exporting, importing, indenting, packaging, mechanical driving

Former Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima had a plan for major restructuring of the NFA to ease the weight of its impact on the government’s consolidated public sector deficit. He said NFA contributed P27 billion to the 2004 consolidated debt and the government loses an average of P2 billion a year in subsidies. Former Budget Secretary Emilia Boncodin, chimed in and said the NFA had long been a concern among budget planners but the executive decision had yet to be made on how to rationalize the functions of the NFA.

NFA primarily operates as a trading company that implements the government’s rice support program by buying palay from the farmgate and selling rice in strategic areas to smoothen the volatility in the prices. "It’s really intended to support the price of palay and rice but we have not been able to afford the amount necessary to actually accomplish this.I personally recognize that some form of subsidy is necessary but it can no longer be the kind of subsidy being implemented now," Boncodin said. "At the very least, the process has to be totally transparent, it can not just go through credit lines the way it is done now." Several legislative measures filed in Congress all designed to ensure that NFA would no longer be a burden on the national budget were not passed.

Earlier, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the NFA and other GOCCs should be prevented from shifting the burden of fiscal adjustment to the National Government.
The IMF said the National Government should avoid taking on more fiscal burden from other government corporations.
Abolish the NFA and consumers could benefit from the entry of lower prices of imported rice and corn. Besides, the NFA is a huge financial burden incurring huge losses in the order of P2 billion per year. These funds could be used instead as subsidy for those rice and corn farmers unable to compete with imports.

Lack of resources makes it difficult for the country to achieve its goal of being self-sufficient in rice and do away with costly importations by 2010.
Aside from feeding a population that grows 2.3 percent annually, the bid for rice self-sufficiency is also intended to eliminate expensive rice imports that cost government about P28 billion annually.

Agriculture Secretary Domingo F. Panganiban announced early 2006 that self-sufficiency in rice is achievable by 2009. "There is a clear roadmap on how to boost rice production and even achieve a surplus by 2009 or 2010, but all that is hinged on the injection of all necessary inputs required to make the plan work," said an official of the Ginintuang Masaganang Ani (GMA) rice program.
The ambitious dream hinged on several iffy conditions: if funds were made available to rehabilitate the dysfunctional 50% irrigation facilities and add new systems. The other major obstacle is the plan demands the use of the so-called golden rice hybrid which costs six times the price of inbred seeds A former DA official also pointed out that the "age-old" problem of lack of support infrastructures has yet to be faced squarely by policymakers.

What we don’t know is that talk of food self-sufficiency, mainly rice, is turning into a myth. And it is hurting us.

The Philippines, a net importer of rice for decades (sporadically before that), importing 191,000 MT in 1984. We bought 934,000 MT in 2003 of which 646,000 MT were purchased by the NFA and 229,000 MT purchased by farmers, allowed for the first time under the Farmers As Importers (FAI) program to import rice. The importation of 600,000 MT of rice in 2004 was planned, 984,000 actually imported. In 2005 imports doubled to 1,805,000 MT and in 2006 dropped slightly to 1,622,000 MT. Vietnam was the source of most rice imports starting in Year 2000.

A former Department of Agriculture Secretary announced "the government was considering a ‘free-for-all’ policy on rice importation by allowing the private sector – mainly farmers and traders – to bring in rice in unlimited volumes. The President wants as much as possible to lift the limits imposed on rice imports such as volume restrictions”. But, this could be another bureaucratic ruse that will allow politicians to oblige their favorite patrons who have cartelized the rice trade, depending on the implementing rules. The FAI program raises fears that this will backfire as farmers discover importing is more profitable than farming and convert their CARP-acquired lands to non-farming use.

An economist from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) said that maybe self-sufficiency requires more investment than it is worth. "Despite playing a key role in Asia’s Green Revolution," David Dawe said, "the Philippines may never attain rice sufficiency and could be better off importing cereals." He added, “self sufficiency has a cost if you want to do it and that cost is borne by the poor. Dawe said arable land is in short supply in the Philippines where only 30 percent is planted to rice. The soil itself is "more suited to growing coconuts and maize" and lacking the major river systems and rainfall patterns available for the heavily water-dependent crop in such areas as Bangladesh, Thailand and Vietnam. "God made that land for growing rice," Dawe said.

Dr. Rolly Dy of the University of Asia and the Pacific agrees with Mr. David Dawe
Dr. Dy points out that small farmers prefer planting rice no matter how uneconomical. For one, it is not perishable, it can be stored and it can be eaten if unsold. The politics of rice has, Dr. Dy believes, contributed in part to the neglect of other sectors and industries such as corn, coconut, sugarcane, fruit trees, aquaculture, oil palm, etc.

Still, while it is important for us to make sure we always have enough rice to feed our people, it is also equally important to make sure that it is affordable. The high cost of rice is a burden to the budgets of poor families. For those consuming at least one and a half 50-kg bags of rice a month, rice purchases can be as much as a third of take home income. It also has a strategic implication to the economy. "High food prices will drive wage demands. High wages will make labor-intensive industries uncompetitive. As a result, investors prefer to locate in low wage countries, assuming all other factors constant.

According to noted economist Dr. Bruce Tolentino, retail rice price in Vietnam is only half that of Philippine rice because of the higher yield and lower logistics cost. NFA imports of cheap rice are sold to match the higher-priced locally produced rice to prevent killing the local rice industry. For this reason, consumers have paid a higher price — double that of neighboring countries for over a decade. In effect, consumers subsidize the high cost of rice. A hidden tax, if you will. Our politicians have never thought of this problem in this light. This is why we always hear platitudes about the need for rice self sufficiency.

In yet another staple, NFA stats show yearly corn imports since 1980, except for 6 years of no importation.

Alleviation in 2008

In October 15, 2007 PGMA bares P10-billion allocation for poverty alleviation in the 2008 budget. Highlighting the close interconnection between poverty and human rights, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo said her administration will mobilize P10 billion in the government’s 2008 national budget to eradicate extreme poverty.

The poverty alleviation agenda is presently limited to the school feeding program that provides a kilogram of rice to each school child as an inducement to attend school. An urban poor spokesman wailed that the war on hunger declared by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo last March allocated one billion pesos spent with no accomplishments to show. Last September, without subjecting the previous allotment to accounting and assessment, there was the announcement that another P3.3 billion will be set aside to fund the "Food for School Program."

Helping improve the needy's nutrition

Lack of fresh fruits and vegetables can cause serious health problems, especially for the poor. We often hear about how lack of access to recommended cancer screening can delay diagnosis and treatment of cancer among the nation’s poor, worsening likely outcomes. However, studies also suggest that the environment in which the poor live may promote lifestyles that increase risk of developing cancer rather than protecting against it.
A diet high in fruits, vegetables and whole grains and low in fatty meats and empty nutrient snacks is a vital step to lower cancer risk. Yet foods most available to those who live in poverty may be just the opposite.

Lack of refrigeration
Low-income residents are also more likely to have no or limited refrigeration and cooking equipment. When access to fresh produce is limited, and facilities for storing and preparing it are also limited, people are more likely to eat high-calorie, low-nutrient snack foods. One study among urban poor concluded that education programs were needed, not so much to kindle desire for healthful foods, but to help people deal with lack of refrigerated storage and cooking equipment.

Families with limited income are also more likely to choose fatty cuts of meat and poultry, which are usually cheaper than leaner cuts, salt-preserved food that risks problems in kidneys, blood and heart, and smaller amounts of fruits and vegetables. Children’s dietary staples are often nonperishables, such as salty snacks, candy and soft drinks. Simply increasing the availability of healthy food may increase its consumption.

The Immortal Centavo and Disappearing Coins

Rewrites of Jottings: The Immortal Centavo and Disappearing Coins

Rummaging through some junk-filled boxes slated for disposal to the trash heap, my last minute scrutiny chanced upon a cache of centavo coins denominated in tens, fives and mostly ones (there were no peso coins then). The misplaced coins were overlooked and overtaken by the legal fiat declaring them non-legal tender.

I vividly recall at the time my last minute attempts to beat the deadline that would condemn the discs from their status as medium of exchange into pieces of tarnished metal, worthless even as mementos. Most of the tens and fives went with purchases, but still left a sizable number of one-sentimo pieces. Then a bright idea came to mind ─ donate to charity. The look on the beggar’s face when he saw the cause of the clanging rain of coins on his alms cup made it quite clear that the idea was not so bright.

The sentimo may no longer be legal tender nor revered for its sentimental value, but it is vibrantly alive in the books of accountants who perform daring acrobatics in balancing the books because of the pesky sentimo. They are even cluttering the computerized ledgers, eating up memory space in big bytes.

If it is no longer legal tender, where are all those sentimos coming from? One suspect culprit is the unbending rule of mathematics where a dividend or product resulting from a math operation that is less than a whole number must be expressed as a decimal. Because many money transactions end up in fractions of a peso, the tiny dot preceding the fractured whole number is inevitable. The threat of technical malversation looms large if custodians of ledgers ignore the sentimos.

The abomination can obviously be rectified by a simple change of rules. The math can be programmed to round the second figure to the right of the dot into a five or a zero whichever is closer. If the books do not balance thereafter, let the computer do the worrying.

Another amazing quality of the sentimo is its ability to materialize at unexpected moments. There was an instance when a top official of the Education Department reassured anxious parents of prospective Grade 1 pupils that when their child enrolls “they will not be charged a single centavo”. The statement turned out to be only too true ─ the parents were not charged one sentimo, it was more like 200 or 20,000 sentimos.

The technical malversation threat may also be solved in novel fashion: place all those sentimos into a special kitty whose sole purpose is to fill the discrepancies at audit time, then put the kitty in the custody of the Immigration Department who then automatically place erring treasurers on hold departure order status to head off absconding.

There are ominous omens that may not bode well for our local economy. Particularly disturbing is a strange phenomenon. In the early hours when the community is just starting to stir into the usual hustle and bustle, the supply of coins in the hands of the public transport sector is zero or its equivalent. Try paying with a paper bill to a taxi or jeepney and you create a minor crisis.

The shortage of coins in circulation is even apparent in banks. Withdraw cash from a bank and ask for an amount in coins to facilitate transactions in the informal sector or the underground economy and, most often, the request is denied, with some curt excuse that none is available. Being a persistent person when denied what I feel is one of my rights, I transform into a tenacious and assertive individual. Only then is the truth revealed that the coins are still locked up in the vault, and it requires a tedious process to override the time lock or to disturb the busy bank manager.

Unbelievably, even the Banko Sentral, the entity that prints our money and mints our coins, refuse to disburse the coins to a private citizen. I once called the Bank by phone and asked if they would exchange my paper bills into coins. The polite voice at the other end was almost apologetic. The reply, in a barely discernible and condescending tone, is that the Banko Sentral does not engage in such (low-level inferred) transactions ─ only private banks are entertained. So much for government transparency and service.

I suspect that the coin phobia might be one of the strategies of government in its anti-gambling campaign, particularly masiao and jueteng that use coins as the betting medium. The trick is to reduce the coins in circulation, drive the betting level up to paper bill level, and urge bettors towards the casinos.

Banks will lend you money if you can prove you don’t need it. Mark Twain

An Open Letter to the Filipino People

Rewrite of Jottings: An Open Letter to the Filipino People

A friend sent me this forwarded email:

Subject: An Open Letter to the Filipino People

>Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2004 21:02:08 -0800 (PST)

Last year, Fernando Poe, Jr. said he wasn't going to run for president; last December, President Gloria Arroyo said she wasn't going to run for president. I don't know how they make their decisions, but it sure sounds like they do it on a whim because today both of them are talking about their "sacrifices" - how hard the next six years are going to be for their families, how they have to give up their privacy, how they have to deal with the criticism and mud slinging and how much they love this country. Oh please. You're all beginning to sound like Kris Aquino.

Watching the news on Wednesday when FPJ announced his intention to run, I panicked when I saw Susan Roces looking alarmingly like Imelda as she cried on TV and said that her husband was running because he just wanted to help the people, so why is everybody so mean to him? I kept thinking, oh my God, is she going to break into Dahil sa Iyo?

That scared the hell out of me. That and the clip where FPJ mumbled through his one-on-one interview with ABS-CBN wearing shades. Did he perhaps misplace a wristband? Or when he was asked about his economic policies and he said

... what did he say? Nothing, that's what. You'd think if you were going to announce your presidential ambitions you would have at least prepared something - anything - on how you were going to lead the country aside from the overused line about being the savior the masses need.

Now showbiz people are complaining of the criticism FPJ is receiving. Their loyalty is fascinating. I can watch their display on TV all day and be alternately amazed and confused about whether part of their brain goes on auto pilot when they're talking about FPJ. It's the same kind of loyalty for Erap, which led Senator Tessie Oreta to do that little jig in the Senate during the impeachment proceedings. Look where it got Erap.

You don't know whether their loyalty to FPJ comes from personally knowing he has the brains to lead the country or simply because they belong to the same profession. There must be something about show business that creates this strong bond, this persecution complex that leads them to think that because they are actors people think they're stupid.

In this country that has elected showbiz people and made them mayors, councilors, governors and senators barangay captains, and hell, even president - why do they still complain of a bias against their profession? You don't hear electricians saying, "Oh they'll never elect us into office!" And you certainly don't hear economists fanatically defending GMA just because she is one. We all know there are many accomplished actors whose achievements go beyond their profession. You see their every move in newspapers every day, for God's sake.

The biggest bias against FPJ is not that he is an actor, but that he may lack the skills, temperament, and attitude to become a leader. People say he has such a kind heart, unquestionable sincerity and that he has helped a lot of people through the years - shouldn't this be enough? No, it's not. I need my president - whoever he or she is - to be better than the average Juan. I want him to know history and poetry as well as economics, to be able to quote Shakespeare and argue with Allan Greenspan, to stand shoulder to shoulder with the world's most powerful leaders, to make me proud - not to make me laugh- when I see him on TV.

I want to love my president and I want to respect him. I want a president who doesn't have to surround himself with economists to know how to run the country. I want him to know these things on his own and listen to advice but not be influenced by people who have a different agenda. I want to talk about my president to foreigners without being embarrassed, without shaking my head and saying, "Well, Filipinos aren't the most mature electorate in the universe." I don't want to hear that Filipino doctors are now studying to become nurses just to apply for jobs abroad or college students choosing their courses based on what the most popular jobs are in other countries.

Sincerity is a beautiful thing, but it's not the only thing that makes a president great In 1998, when Erap was elected, I was hoping he would succeed, that since he was wildly popular and beloved, he was going to do good. But look what he did.…

…He blamed the rich, played to the poor and completely forgot about the middle class who didn't cheat on their taxes or steal other people's land. Like Erap, FPJ polarizes people. It's the kind that creates so much anger and distrust on both sides. This early, the people surrounding him are far from reassuring. Tito Sotto? After showing his fantastic grasp of economics, of what drives foreign exchange? Hello?

This is not Eat Bulaga, sir. Nobody is laughing. Somebody should pinch FPJ and tell him this is not the movies. That he cannot fight off our Asian neighbors for measly investment with his magic sword. Erap and now Ang Panday. It's so depressing I want to cry.

A friend warned me about pissing off FPJ. She said, "Be careful what you write about him, he may be your next president."

What's he gonna do, drop an anvil on my head?

PLEASE PASS IF YOU LOVE YOUR COUNTRY

My Reply

Subject: Re Open Letter

Date: Sun, 15 Feb 2004 04:11:25 +0800

Thank you for sharing with me the "Open Letter to the Filipino People". I do adore this country, although it's starting to waver a bit.

It is remarkable how election fever has stirred emotions and agitating uncivil language. So many messages forwarded on email and mobile text are coarse, at times gross, and no longer couched in sarcastic humor, but rather in ridiculous falsehoods. It pains me to read statements by literate Pinoys using rude and vulgar language.

The letter portrayed some of the nation's travails. Nevertheless, there are a few items I wish to add to balance the picture.

Showbiz people do seem to excel in the political voting arena due to their wide exposure to the public. Fortunately, rare are stories about their filching public coffers, perhaps for fear of smearing their pogi image.

People biased against actor FPJ as being unprepared to lead the nation should recall that two decades ago, opponents said the same of Cory Aquino. A president, by his lonesome self, is not capable of running the country's affairs. He needs a team to do this. Even a parliamentary system has a team of ministers headed by a prime minister.

To blame an immature (read injudicious) electorate for electing to office an ill-prepared person is, in itself, injudicious. Voters who have lost all hope for a better life will cast their votes for the person they perceive can save them. Else, violence is the alternative.

Doctors are highly educated individuals. If a doctor decides to take up nursing, he chooses to pursue a career which can provide a better life for him, probably overseas. Inference of idiocy is inappropriate. In the same vein, I disagreed with the top official of Higher Education who proposed the closure of all nursing schools in the country because graduates take overseas jobs, thus wasting the nation's money in educating them. (Where are these subsidized government schools, I'd like to know).

Knocking the future émigrés who choose a career abroad is the unkindest cut of all. Philippine jobs are as rare as hen's teeth. Graduates who took courses that are dead-end job-wise become parasites to society, but could be valuable assets (some say heroes) as OFWs. Many third-world governments have set up formal plans to educate their youth targeting jobs overseas.

The bureaucracy today desperately needs a little less grafting and a little more pruning. Perhaps Erap honed his sticky-finger skill in that institution.

If God had intended us to vote, He would have given us good candidates.

Planning Precautions

Rewrites of Jottings: Planning Precautions

Preparedness

The cost of preparing for critical events that do not occur is generally very small in comparison to the cost of being unprepared for those that do. It is less costly to try to prevent a problem from happening than it is to react to it after it has happened. ─ Russell L. Ackoff

An essential technique to increase chances of success in an endeavor is planning. Big business has fine-tuned the art to something approaching science.

Even the ordinary person can benefit from knowledge of the planning process and the awareness that other people apply the technique to prevail over adversaries or victims. Like people engaged in business, criminals also plan their moves, even the seemingly opportunistic snatching of adornments from pedestrians. They study people’s behavior, preferably the easy victims ─ females, elderly, children. They select the ideal site of their operation to achieve a fast accomplishment and speedy escape.

You, the potential victim, must devise a plan to avoid being a victim of snatching robbery, rape, mugging, and other threats to your person. However, there are minor crises whose occurrence is more probable which you should anticipate to avoid coming to grief.

What would you do if …

… while walking on the sidewalk, a hanging cablewire is in your path.

… a motorbike encroaches on the sidewalk and threatens to run you down.

… you are in line in a queue and someone inserts ahead of you

… after waiting politely to be served at a shop counter, a new arrival is served first

… you are a non-smoker in an air-conditioned eating place and some customers suddenly light up.

… when riding a public jeepney, the driver drives at an excessive speed and reckless manner.

… a drunken person or an idiot harasses you

… a persistent beggar pesters you

Precautions to avoid rape

(Issued by the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation)

v Lock up. Keep all entrances closed and do not let unidentified strangers in for any reason. Do not let callers know that you are alone.

v Stay alert. If you sense anything out of the ordinary when entering or leaving your own house, take immediate precautionary measures.

v Do not be isolated. If possible, always have a companion when going out of the house but if you need to be alone, stay in well-populated areas and avoid secluded spots.

v Familiarize. Get acquainted with the friends and companions of your children, especially if they are left alone with them at home.

v Choose where you stay. Rape can happen anywhere, but it is far more likely to occur at certain places and times. Stay off the “mean streets” in your area particularly at night.

v Chin up. Do not be the perfect victim type by looking vulnerable. Avoid skimpy clothing.

v Protect yourself. Try to learn some basic self-defense techniques or bring some chemical repellents (mace, tear gas).

Women who are alone, isolated from public view and appear vulnerable to the assailant are the three highest risk factors. Almost two thirds of all attempted and committed rapes were perpetrated not by strangers but by close acquaintances ─ a family member, a neighbor, a co-worker or a friend.

Amusing note: The female octopus has her vagina in her nose. If the male octopus approaches the female when she is not ready for mating, the female octopus will bite off his penis and swim away with it. Fortunately, the male still has seven left.

How To Behave If Taken Hostage

While the idea of being taken hostage may seem farfetched, it does happen in some big cities, especially in banks, stores and airplanes. To get through it safely:

Concentrate on following instructions exactly during the first 15-45 minutes. This is the critical period, when the terrorist is emotional and trigger-happy.

Keep quiet, and speak only when spoken to. Don't try to be friendly, phony, argumentative or hostile.

Don't make suggestions. Captors will suspect a trick.

Be wary of attempting escape. If it fails, it's likely to bring violence.

If you are released ahead of others, closely observe everything that goes on in order to help police.

Treat the hostage takers like royalty, but try not to be overly condescending.

Expect to be frisked or even treated roughly by police when released. Advise: Cooperate fully; police aren't sure who is who and don't take chances.

(Source: New York City Police Hostage Negotiating Team.)

KIDNAPPING AVOIDANCE

1. Avoid predictability of movement. Vary time of departure and arrival 2--3 hours daily. Vary route; occasionally skip travel entirely.

2. Obtain emergency communications (Cellphone, mobile radio). Pre-arrange with police and law enforcement agencies.

3. Practice extreme alertness: for following vehicles; at stoppage points, esp. at home and office; at traffic intersections. Proximity detection at end points.

What you cannot enforce, do not command. ~ Sophocles

If all else fails, read the directions.

Don’t make up your mind until you have to.

Of Polluted Beaches, Niños and Global Warming

Rewrites of Jottings: Of Polluted Beaches, Niños and Global Warming

In a statement issued recently by the World Health Organization warned swimmers that some beaches in Asia are contaminated with sewage. Pathogens in contaminated water can cause diarrhea and fever, and in extreme cases even kidney infection, hemorrhage and death, the WHO warned. The editorial of a national daily expressed elation that the advisory did not mention the Philippines.

But the Philippines does have polluted coastal waters that pose a risk to the health of humans and to marine life. A prime tourist spot, Boracay, was embarrassed by a report of coliform contamination in the 90’s, and a similar report, of Macajalar Bay adjacent to Cagayan de Oro. In a letter to a Congressman (not of our City), I wrote: “The urgency of protecting water supplies and coastal waters cannot be over emphasized. Boracay’s septic crisis some years back was solved only by natural means (tidal currents), but jolted frightened businesses into positive action. Macajalar Bay adjacent to this city was also found heavy with coliform bacteria in the mid-90s, but with only mild tidal currents and unrelenting flow of sewage the bay could by now be one huge cesspool.”

Untreated sewage of CDO still flows to the Bay and, except for Delmonte that has a wastewater treatment facility, all other manufacturing plants along the coast of CDO discharge raw effluents directly into bay or river waters. A decade ago I warned all members of my household not to swim in Macajalar Bay.

Of Global Warming and El Niño

Global warming and El Niño are buzzwords that conversant Pinoys have inserted into their vocabulary. But for various reasons, El Niño is used much more often, despite its decade long interval, and global warming is treated with disdain or ignored completely.

Perhaps the reason El Niño is heavily favored is that it is a great motivator. Whenever it is conjured in official circles, it can elicit funding (in drooling amounts) “to minimize the ill-effects”. It is a convenient justification for doling out a sack of rice to farmers nearing starvation, or during its La Niña reverse, when sudden downpours induce roofs to leak and wet some home floors it gives cause for barangay bleeding hearts to plead for a calamity declaration, the” open sesame” that opens the calamity fund coffer.

The GMA administration geared up to face the El Niño that it says will begin in October 2002 and last until June 2003. The timing seems a bit stretched ─ Niños are known to begin at Christmas time when the Christ child (El Niño de Navidad) arrives. These oceanic phenomena occur yearly but are usually mild. However, about every tenth year or so (nine Niños were recorded during the past 40 years), a severe one occurs (the canonical El Niño), bringing extreme weather globally. Heavy rains fall in coastal South America and elsewhere, but drought in other regions such as Southeast Asia.

Rainfall and drought are atmospheric phenomena that are linked to oceanic El Niño in the weather cycle. Insolation energy from the Sun absorbed by the Pacific Ocean produces the convection currents and wind patterns in the air, which in turn generates rain (or lack of it). When the pattern of prevailing winds and ocean currents is exceptionally disrupted and leads to an El Niño, it also perturbs the rhythm of life. Predicting an onset of this climatic disturbance would be useful in agricultural planning, especially in anticipating food reserve needs and good water management.

It seems we have yet to learn from experience if we include cloud seeding as one of the relief measures. It would constitute a case of “too little, too late”. Given the 10-year cycle of Niños (which is being studied if it has correlation to the 10½-year sunspot cycle), the 2002-03 Niño could have been anticipated. The U.S. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) started giving warnings when prevailing winds began weakening in May 2002. It would be interesting to find out how Napocor managed the water usage in the Agus and Pulangi generators.

In contrast, what can global warming stimulate? At best, a few palm-leaf fans. Why do Filipinos not take it seriously? How did the term become a scare word? A bit of historical background might provide an insight.

The alarm attained grave proportions when a scientist from NASA (the U.S. Space Administration) while giving testimony to the U.S. Senate hearing on global climate change, stated that “the Earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in history”, and said further that “the greenhouse effect is changing our climate now.” The publicity reverberated around the world.

Why would Pinoys who are used to year round warm weather even care? The bad news is that warmer global climate would expedite the melting of the polar ice caps which, if completely melted, would raise the ocean level 200 feet. The Philippine archipelago would lose thousands of islands to the sea and submerge coastal regions of major islands. The good news is that this process will take hundreds of thousands of years.

The Earth gets almost all its energy from the sun, except for a very negligible amount from volcanic eruptions and geothermal sources. About 45% of incoming insolation is immediately reflected by clouds back to space. The energy reaching the surface is re-radiated back to space at night (after doing work evaporating water into clouds, moving winds in the atmosphere and waves in the ocean, and a tiny amount on photosynthesis.) However, the greenhouse effect traps some heat, preventing it from escaping to space.

A major contributor to the greenhouse effect is carbon dioxide (CO2). Although CO2 is a common component of the atmosphere, man’s rapid progress in the 20^th century ─ moving about in vehicles and operating factories that burn fossil fuel oil ─ has made substantial contribution to the increase in atmospheric CO2. In parts per million by volume, CO2 in the atmosphere was 285 in 1860, jumped to 340 in 1981, hurdled 375 in 2000 and is projected to be 540 in the year 2040.

Two recent studies predict that the average global temperature will rise as much as 5.5º F. because the atmosphere concentration of CO2 prevents the earth’s heat from radiating to outer space. The adverse effects of rising temperature includes a shift in desert and agricultural belts, the spread of pests and tropical disease, and as ice sheets melt, a 15 – 24 feet rise in sea levels that would displace shoreline inhabitants.

Another major greenhouse gas is methane, produced by cows, sheep, goats and other ruminant animals. Billions and billions of termites also produce methane. Forest denudation also increases the concentration of CO2, but only to a slight degree, since only one-tenth of the total CO2 consumption is due to grass, bushes and trees, the other nine-tenths being accounted for by phytoplankton (algae) in the ocean. (The Japanese whale-meat diet helps reduce the whale populations that consume the plankton in huge ton-size gulps.)

Some factors that inhibit the heat build-up from insolation are the reflectivity of clouds and the albedo effect of air particles floating in the atmosphere. Further into the future, the probability of another ice age (in ten to fifteen thousand years) would help cool things down, but that’s another story.

The common element of both greenhouse gases CO2 and methane is carbon, but this should not detract from its value to humanity. Carbon is also a component of trees, crude oil, synthetic rubber, steel, graphite in pencils, strengthener of composite materials, and girl’s-best-friend diamonds. And let us not forget, proteins, the essence of life.